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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

169 
ABNT20 KNHC 191123
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather located a little more than 1000
miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical
wave moving westward about 10 to 15 mph. Some slight development is
possible during the next day or two before the environment becomes
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores.  After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Avila

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 19 Sep 2018 14:57:05 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

751 
ABPZ20 KNHC 191347
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Updated first system to raise probabilities

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Updated: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
low pressure area over the southern Gulf of California has become
better defined this morning.  This system could become a tropical
depression later today before moving into northwestern mainland
Mexico tonight.  This disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora
through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.  Moisture from this disturbance will also lead
to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding in the
southwestern United States beginning today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while
it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 19
 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 26.3, -110.9
 with movement N at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018  

539 
WTPZ34 KNHC 191453
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 110.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 110.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this motion is expected to become more north-northeast
tonight with a similar forward motion until the system dissipates on
Thursday.  On the forecast track the depression is forecast to move
inland over northwestern Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant strengthening is expected before the system moves
inland over mainland northwestern Mexico, then steady weakening is
forecast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture from this
disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and a risk of
flash flooding in the southwestern United States beginning today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018  

365 
WTPZ24 KNHC 191452
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 110.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018  

365 
WTPZ44 KNHC 191455
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed
over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough.
This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto
just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows
curved convective banding features to the east and north of the
center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system
is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained
winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the
system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western
side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output.  However, the
system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to
move inland without significant strengthening.

An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is
expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the
Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well
advertised by the track guidance.  The depression is expected to
dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain.

The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall,
with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches
leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the
track of the depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018  

433 
FOPZ14 KNHC 191453
PWSEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HERMOSILLO     34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUAYMAS        34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 14:56:44 GMT

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 14:56:44 GMT