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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090506
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a 
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are 
showing signs of organization. However, recent satellite-derived 
wind data indicate that the system is not very well-defined at the 
surface. Some slow development of this system is possible over the 
next few days while it moves westward across the tropical eastern 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 09 Aug 2020 05:36:16 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090514
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on 
newly-developed Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred 
miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form over the far western portion of 
the eastern Pacific basin later this week.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be generally conducive for development while the 
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week.  Some 
development is possible thereafter as the system moves generally 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092020)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 8
 the center of Nine-E was located near 14.7, -102.6
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020  

305 
WTPZ34 KNHC 090236
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of the system will remain well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is likely to 
become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by late 
Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 090232
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   0 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090233
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that 
we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for 
more than 12 hours.  Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B 
scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed 
circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is 
increasing near the estimated center while banding features are 
becoming better defined.  The system has sufficient convective 
organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical 
depression, and advisories are being initiated.  Based on a ship 
report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is 
estimated to be near 30 kt.  Upper-level outflow from the tropical 
cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving 
over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next 
week.  With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone 
is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane 
within a couple of days.  The official forecast is similar to the 
model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be 
conservative.  By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to 
weakening.
 
Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate
of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt.  The
steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several
days.  A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the
southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a
generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.
Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower
circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow.  The
official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and
corrected multi-model consensus solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 090232
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020               
0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 105W       34 15   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  16(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)  22(23)  51(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  47(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  68(76)   1(77)   X(77)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  42(43)   X(43)   X(43)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  31(48)   X(48)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   1(19)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Nine-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 02:37:55 GMT

Tropical Depression Nine-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 03:24:47 GMT