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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131142
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche. 
Slow development is possible over the next several days while the 
broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form 
in this area late in the week.  Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and 
southern Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 13 Jun 2021 11:46:17 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131142
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Carlos, located more than 1200 miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles 
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico has become ill-defined while 
the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. 
Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for development, 
and formation of a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Regardless 
of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See 
products from your local meteorological service for more 
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO 
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 13
 the center of Carlos was located near 11.9, -125.3
 with movement W at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 130833
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021
 
...CARLOS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 125.3 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the 
west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this 
afternoon and continue through Tuesday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast 
during the next 24 to 36 hours.
 
Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021  

478 
WTPZ23 KNHC 130832
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032021
0900 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.2N 126.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.2N 128.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.6N 128.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 125.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130836
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021
 
Infrared and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Carlos 
remains a compact tropical cyclone. Two ASCAT passes between 
0400-0500 UTC revealed a radius of maximum wind of 10-12 nmi and 
tropical-storm-force winds that only extended outward about 20 nmi. 
Cloud tops colder than -50C only extend outward about 60 nmi from 
the center. The earlier ASCAT-A/-B passes contained peak surface 
wind vectors of 37 kt/40 kt, respectively, so the estimated 
intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory, which 
could be a little conservative owing to the small size of the 
cyclone and possible undersampling of the scatterometer instrument.

The initial motion estimate is due west or 270/07 kt. There is 
little change to the previous NHC track forecast or reasoning. The 
latest model runs are in good agreement on Carlos turning toward the 
west-southwest later today, followed by a southwestward motion on 
Monday and Tuesday as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the 
cyclone builds southward. By day 3, the models diverge significantly 
when the deep-layer steering currents collapse, followed by possible 
rapid weakening. The ECMWF weakens Carlos into a shallow remnant low 
by 72 h, with the shallow vortex then being driven southwestward by 
a strong low-level ridge to the north and northeast. In contrast, 
the GFS and some of the other global and regional models keep Carlos 
stronger and vertically deeper, which results in a ridge to the east 
lifting the cyclone out toward the north. Given the large spread in 
the track guidance on days 4 and 5, the new NHC track forecast is 
similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory track, and 
close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX simple consensus track models.
 
Carlos' small size in combination with the relatively low deep-layer 
vertical shear of 5-10 kt for the next 36 h or so would normally 
argue for significant strengthening. However, the cyclone's 
proximity to very dry mid-level and cooler sea-surface just to its 
north and northwest is expected to result in the periodic 
entrainment of stable air for the 72 h or so, resulting in 
intermittent disruptions of the central deep convection. Thus, 
little change in strength is forecast during that time. Thereafter, 
the combination of increasing southwesterly wind shear and sub-27C 
sea-surface temperatures along the track is expected to induce 
gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to 
the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA 
intensity consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 11.9N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 11.6N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 11.2N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 10.7N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 10.3N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 10.2N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 10.6N 128.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 14.0N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 130833
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032021               
0900 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
10N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   9(14)   2(16)   1(17)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics

Tropical Storm Carlos 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 08:37:40 GMT

Tropical Storm Carlos 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 09:22:27 GMT